What happens when a former CIA officer who is now a congresswoman and Virginia’s first female lieutenant governor have a heated debate? Things get heated, and social media goes crazy. Abigail Spanberger is running against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the race for governor of Virginia in 2025.
Everyone is talking about the debate at Norfolk State University on October 9. The election is only a few weeks away on November 4. Here’s the latest news, polls, and what it means for voters in Virginia.
Key Takeaways
- Spanberger leads most recent polls, especially with independents and younger voters.
- The Jay Jones text scandal dominated much of the debate and became a major attack point.
- Earle-Sears pressed Spanberger on abortion, transgender policy, and car tax cuts, forcing her to defend her record.
- Voters care first about the economy, education, and healthcare—not culture wars.
- Spanberger’s challenge: stay calm and issue-focused as Earle-Sears tries to shift momentum.
Polls Show Spanberger Ahead, But Risks Are There
Recent polls show that Spanberger is in the lead. In the Washington Post–Schar School poll from September 25 to October 1, she got 52% of the vote, while Earle-Sears got 40%. She has a big lead with younger and independent voters.
Another poll from Emerson College/The Hill (September 26 to October 1) shows Spanberger with 52% and Earle-Sears with 42%. It says that Spanberger has gained 10 points among men and voters under 50 since January.
But new information suggests that the race might get closer. A Cygnal poll from October 6–7 shows Spanberger at 49.2% and Earle-Sears at 45.2%, with 5.6% still not sure.
The Jones controversy and debate clips could get conservative voters fired up and make things less stable.
Debate Night: What Went Wrong and What Happened Next
The only televised debate between the two candidates became a huge hit. Clips got hundreds of thousands of views in a short amount of time.
Jay Jones’ texts are the main attack
Earle-Sears hit Spanberger hard over 2022 texts from Jay Jones that talked about hurting a GOP lawmaker and their family. Spanberger called the messages “abhorrent,” but she didn’t ask Jones to drop out. She said that voters should choose what happens to him. Critics called her “weak” for holding back, while supporters praised her calmness.
Abortion and transgender policies are at odds
Earle-Sears said that Spanberger was in favor of “abortion up until birth.” Spanberger fought back by bringing up Roe v. Wade and warning that strict bans have hurt people in other places. People made memes about her response and praised her for staying calm.
Earle-Sears criticized Spanberger’s vote on the Equality Act, saying it let “men in girls’ locker rooms” when it came to transgender issues. Spanberger said that decisions should be made at the local level. Conservatives spread “mom testimonials” that said she was putting girls in danger.
Car Tax and Trustworthiness in Finance
Both promised to lower Virginia’s unpopular car tax. Spanberger said that Earle-Sears had voted against a 10% cut in the past and asked how she would make up the $2 billion in lost revenue. Earle-Sears had a hard time giving clear answers.
What Voters Are Looking At
According to survey data, 79% of Virginians say the economy is the most important issue, 78% say education, and 71% say healthcare. About 27% say that transgender policy is a big worry.
Spanberger’s plan includes a lot of outreach to rural areas, pushing for broadband access, and protecting Medicaid benefits. She has even made progress in areas that lean toward Trump.
Earle-Sears, on the other hand, plays up her conservative base by talking about tax cuts and parental rights.
What’s Next: The Closing Stretch Strategy
Spanberger knows what to do: stay focused on the issues, avoid arguments, and reach out to moderates and rural swing areas. Her 51% favorability rating, which is higher than Earle-Sears’ 42%, gives her some breathing room, but the Jones scandal is still a threat.
Voting early is still going on. With the whole country watching Virginia’s outcome, expect every twist and turn until November 4.
Quick Facts: Spanberger vs. Earle-Sears
| Candidate | Key Strength | Key Vulnerability |
|---|---|---|
| Abigail Spanberger | Rural outreach, issue focus | Avoiding full distance from Jones scandal, “extreme” framing |
| Winsome Earle-Sears | Tax cuts, conservative messaging | Vague funding plans, aggressive style turned off moderates |
